Scoring 2007 Republican Straw Poll Results
NASCAR Style Scoring of 2007 Republican Straw Poll Results
As one more way to spin the numbers before the primaries and caucuses I’ve taken the results of fourteen straw polls conducted from March 2 to August 18 and attempted to score them NASCAR style. I am not a NASCAR fan so I am indebted to Brent Sanders, a candidate for U.S. Congress in Louisiana’s 5th District, for explaining how it works. His website is here: http://www.joinsanders.com.
I’ve scored the cumulative performance for each candidate. 1st place scores 100, 2nd scores 98, 3rd scores 96, etc. A score of 0 in any given poll means that candidate either wasn’t included or got no votes. The candidates are ranked by total cumulative score. I have included announced candidates, unannounced candidates and write-ins. Basically if someone tried and got nothing, placed or won big I’ve included them.
Right now I’m seeing four front runners, based on their relatively close scores: Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Rudy Guiliani and Fred Thompson. The spread between the highest and lowest of that group is 122 points. John McCain, 148 points behind Fred Thompson, leads Tier 2. I’m calling everybody below Tom Tancrado also-rans since the 176 points between Tancrado and Newt Gingrich is nearly as great as the 198 point range of Tier 2.
The numbers in the top row indicates the poll. Poll information is listed in the second table with links to the sources used.
This page will be updated as new straw polls are conducted.
Candidates Ranked By Cumulative Straw Poll Results
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | Total | ||
| Romney | Mitt | 92 | 96 | 100 | 94 | 96 | 96 | 94 | 100 | 96 | 100 | 96 | 100 | 98 | 98 | 1356 |
| Paul | Ron | 84 | 82 | 98 | 98 | 94 | 98 | 100 | 92 | 98 | 92 | 94 | 96 | 100 | 100 | 1326 |
| Giuliani | Rudy | 98 | 94 | 96 | 96 | 90 | 90 | 98 | 96 | 92 | 86 | 92 | 94 | 92 | 86 | 1300 |
| Thompson | Fred | 0 | 100 | 88 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 82 | 98 | 100 | 88 | 98 | 98 | 94 | 88 | 1234 |
| McCain | John | 100 | 88 | 94 | 92 | 0 | 88 | 0 | 90 | 90 | 82 | 90 | 92 | 88 | 92 | 1086 |
| Brownbeck | Sam | 94 | 92 | 84 | 84 | 88 | 0 | 88 | 0 | 88 | 96 | 100 | 88 | 88 | 84 | 1074 |
| Huckabey | Mike | 88 | 0 | 86 | 90 | 0 | 94 | 92 | 94 | 0 | 98 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 96 | 1008 |
| Hunter | Duncan | 96 | 84 | 0 | 82 | 98 | 0 | 86 | 94 | 94 | 84 | 0 | 86 | 96 | 88 | 988 |
| Tancredo | Tom | 86 | 86 | 92 | 80 | 92 | 88 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 0 | 84 | 0 | 94 | 876 |
| Gingrich | Newt | 90 | 90 | 82 | 86 | 90 | 92 | 84 | 0 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 700 |
| Thompson | Tommy | 80 | 98 | 90 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 524 |
| Cox | John | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 336 |
| Gilbert | Daniel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 96 | 0 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 180 |
| Gilmore | Jim | 80 | 0 | 0 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 168 |
| Rice | Condi | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 82 |
| Armey | Dick | 0 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 78 |
| Bush | Jeb | 0 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 74 |
| Coburn | Tom | 0 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 72 |
Straw Poll Source Data
| Poll Sponser/Location, Date | Votes Cast | |
| 1. | Spartanburg, South Carolina Straw Poll, March 2 | 776 |
| 2. | Wisconsin GOP Straw Poll, May 12 | 306 |
| 3. | Utah State Republican Convention Presidential Straw Poll, June 8 | 1295 |
| 4. | National Taxpayers Union Straw Poll, June 19 | Only % given |
| 5. | California Republican Assembly, July 1 | Only % given |
| 6. | Cobb County, Georgia GOP Straw Poll, July 4 | 247 |
| 7. | Coalition of New Hampshire Taxpayers, July 8 | 294 |
| 8. | Young Republicans Straw Poll, July 8 | 347 |
| 9. | Georgetown County, South Carolina, August 2 | 223 |
| 10. | Ames Iowa Straw Poll, August 11 | 14,302 |
| 11. | Students for Life of America, August 16 | 635 |
| 12. | Illinois Republican Party Straw Poll, August 17 | 922 |
| 13. | Tuscaloosa Alabama Straw Poll, August 18 | 226 |
| 14. | Strattford County New Hampshire, August 18 | 293 |
Aditional Sources
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/StrawPolls.phtml
http://cycloneconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/08/mitt-romney-wins-ames-straw-poll.html
http://www.qctimes.com/articles/2007/08/16//news/local/doc46c4e2256a2f9270245306.txt
Now that looks like honest reporting. If all ballots had been hand counted Ron Paul would certainly be in first. But second is ok for now. Its a long time until the elections and “mainstream media” has yet to give him any crediblity at all. Ron Paul in 2008. God speed.
Comment by donald Barsell — August 21, 2007 @ 9:16 pm EST
Interesting! I compiled 12 but had some others not on your list:
Compilation of all 12 Republican Straw Poll so far.
Results for Ron Paul:
Firsts - 5
Seconds - 2
Thirds - 2
Fifth - 1
Last - 2
April 21, 2007, Greenville, SC ~ Last 0.24% (1/421)
April 21, 2007, Spartanburg, SC ~ Last 0% (0/700)
April 21, 2007, Richland, SC ~ Last 0% (0/126)
June 16, 2007, LibertyPapers.org conference ~ 2nd 16.7% (NA)
July 7, 2007, Concord, NH ~ 1st 61.9% (182/294)
July 28, 2007, Georgetown, SC ~ 2nd 18% (40/223)
August 4, 2007, National Federation of Republican Assemblies, St. Louis, MO ~ 3rd 14% (NA)
August 11, 2007, Ames, IA ~ 5th 9.12% (1,305/14,302)
August 13, 2007, Gaston, NC ~ 1st 36.6% (NA)
August 16, 2007, Springfield, IL ~ 3rd 18.87% (174/922)
August 18, 2007, Stafford, NH ~ 1st 72.7% (208/286)
August 18, 2007, West Alabama ~ 1st 81.2% (216/266)
Sourced in part from:
http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=47579
Comment by BrianH — August 21, 2007 @ 11:26 pm EST
“Now that looks like honest reporting.”
I can only take credit for fleshing out someone else’s idea and putting it in pretty package.
“Interesting! I compiled 12 but had some others not on your list”
Thanks for the additional info. I’m sure we’ve both missed others. I intend to update this from time to time, but I trying to make a bit more constructive use of my time by actually working on the ground to keep the momentum going.
Once the Straw poll frenzy draws to a close and the real voting begins, I want to finalize this for posterity’s sake. I’m anxious to see how much predictive value it might have, but we won’t know that for several months to come.
As so many people have said, the performance of all the candidates in the straw polls isn’t about “winning” anything, but it very much demonstrates a campaign’s organizational ability and the dedication of its supporters.
Comment by isilion — August 22, 2007 @ 2:23 am EST
Someone e-mailed me their tally this morning, and started June 1st as before then Ron Paul’s name wasn’t out there very much. I think he announced his candidacy in April so the March Spartanburg poll probably shouldn’t count. Found some new numbers for Gaston (41 voters!)
Compilation of 13 Republican Straw Polls since June 1, 2007.
Results for Ron Paul:
FIRST (4)
New Hampshire Taxpayers, July 7 ~ 1st 61.9% (182/294)
North Carolina, Gaston GOP, August 13, ~ 1st 36.6% (15/41)
New Hampshire, Stafford, NH, August 18~ 1st 72.7% (208/286)
West Alabama, August 18 ~ 1st 81.2% (216/266)
SECOND (4)
Utah GOP, June 12, 2nd 5.4% (70/1295)
LibertyPapers.org conference, June 16 ~ 2nd 16.7% (NA)
Georgia, Cobb Co. GOP, July 4 ~ 2nd 17% (42/247)
South Carolina, Georgetown Co., July 28 ~ 2nd 18% (40/223)
THIRD (2)
National Federation of Republican Assemblies, August 4, St. Louis, MO ~ 3rd 14% (NA)
Illinois, Springfield, August 16 ~ tied 3rd 18.87% (174/922)
FOURTH (1)
California Republican Assembly, July 1 ~ 4th 12% (NA)
FIFTH (1)
Iowa, Ames, August 11 ~ 5th 9.12% (1,305/14,302)
SIXTH (1)
Young Republican National Federation, Ft Lauderdale FL, July 8th ~ 6th 4.5% (11/247)
Sourced in part from:
http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=47579
Other data on 14 polls: http://isilion.blogsome.com/2007/08/19/85/
Comment by BrianH — August 22, 2007 @ 1:49 pm EST
Update: Compilation of 15 Republican Straw Polls since June 1, 2007.
Results for Ron Paul:
FIRST (5)
New Hampshire Taxpayers, July 7 ~ 1st 61.9% (182/294)
North Carolina, Gaston GOP, August 13, ~ 1st 36.6% (15/41)
New Hampshire, Stafford, NH, August 18 ~ 1st 72.7% (208/286)
West Alabama, August 18 ~ 1st 81.2% (216/266)
Washington State, August 21 ~ 1st 28.1% (40/160)
SECOND (4)
Utah GOP, June 12, 2nd 5.4% (70/1295)
LibertyPapers.org conference, June 16 ~ 2nd 16.7% (NA)
Georgia, Cobb Co. GOP, July 4 ~ 2nd 17% (42/247)
South Carolina, Georgetown Co., July 28 ~ 2nd 18% (40/223)
THIRD (2)
National Federation of Republican Assemblies, August 4, St. Louis, MO ~ 3rd 14% (NA)
Illinois, Springfield, August 16 ~ tied 3rd 18.87% (174/922)
FOURTH (2)
California Republican Assembly, July 1 ~ 4th 12% (NA)
Indiana, Tippecanoe Co., August 18 ~ 4th 11.7% (21/180)
FIFTH (1)
Iowa, Ames, August 11 ~ 5th 9.12% (1,305/14,302)
SIXTH (1)
Young Republican National Federation, Ft Lauderdale FL, July 8th ~ 6th 4.5% (11/247)
Sourced in part from:
http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=47579
Other data on 14 polls: http://isilion.blogsome.com/2007/08/19/85/
Comment by BrianH — August 23, 2007 @ 12:39 am EST
Nice work! Please add the Washington state straw poll results to the score-card. Ron Paul won of course!
Comment by HippyInASuit — August 23, 2007 @ 2:40 pm EST
I love this compliation of data. I would like to add that Ron Paul to first place in the Maryland straw poll.
Comment by Loche — September 15, 2007 @ 10:18 pm EST
I just wish the candidates would go ahead and say, if they lost, who they would want to support and win in their stead. Then we could see who all the #2 choices are, and investigate them as our main frontrunner options.
Comment by Daniel Caldwell — September 30, 2007 @ 5:59 am EST